A few big accounts know things. We follow every dollar.
Late Tape tracks every Polymarket trade above $10,000 and groups them into positions. Watch where conviction is building, then check the track record once markets settle.
How confidence is scored
01 / WALLET COUNT
Multiple independent accounts choosing the same side adds conviction. Five or more wallets earns full weight.
02 / POSITION SIZE
Total USD across all wallets. Half a million or more earns full weight—serious money talks loudest.
03 / CONVICTION TIER
Serious trades ($100k+) score higher than standard whale trades ($10k+). Size signals certainty.
04 / TIMING
Trades placed in the final hours before resolution carry the most weight. Early money could be anyone.
05 / ENTRY PRICE
Big money on a doubted outcome (low entry price) signals stronger conviction than the same dollars on a near-certain bet. Cheap entry scores higher.
Confidence scores are heuristic and not yet calibrated against track record. Scores will be recalibrated as resolved data accumulates.