A few big accounts know things. We follow every dollar.
Late Tape tracks every Polymarket trade above $10,000 and groups them into positions. Watch where conviction is building, then check the track record once markets settle.
How confidence is scored
01 / WALLET COUNT
Multiple independent accounts choosing the same side adds conviction. Five or more wallets earns full weight.
02 / POSITION SIZE
Total USD across all wallets. Half a million or more earns full weight—serious money talks loudest.
03 / CONVICTION TIER
Serious trades ($100k+) score higher than standard whale trades ($10k+). Size signals certainty.
04 / TIMING
Trades placed in the final hours before resolution carry the most weight. Early money could be anyone.
Confidence scores are heuristic and not yet calibrated against track record. Scores will be recalibrated as resolved data accumulates.